The L69 group drafted a resolution on Security Council Reform in 2012 and since late February 2013, a very similar resolution has been circulated by CARICOM. According to the cover letter, the latter resolution was sent to the Chair of the negotiations, Amb. Zahir Tanin of Afghanistan, and also distributed to the L69 and African Group. The Center presents the two resolutions in columns to highlight the significant similarities - as well as a few differences - between the two. As far as the Center knows, supporters of the L69 resolution only include developing countries, and already includes a number of African countries.
These two resolutions clearly hope to seek convergence with the African Group which has insisted on two permanents seats since 2005, including the privileges such as the right of veto. As a large group of 54 members - and with presumed internal divisions - the African Group is not very nimble and its decision-making can be slow. At the latest AU Summit on 28 January 2013 in Addis Ababa, the Coordinator of the C10, President Ernest Bai Koroma of Sierra Leone, delivered a speech in which he mentioned the L69 initiative as a “positive development.” The C10, President Koroma explained, will hold meetings of Permanent Representatives to the UN in New York and the AU in Addis Ababa in preparation for the 2013 May AU Summit. It seems clear that no major decision on SC reform from Africa should be expected any time soon based on President Koroma’s statement that in addition to meetings at the level of foreign ministers, “it is envisaged that these preparatory meetings will be of added value to the high-level meeting of C10 Heads of State and Government before our Summit in January 2014.”
One factor that may slow down the African Group's decision-making is the fact that it will have to select two candidates to become their permanent members, while 6-7 African countries are vying for such seats. It is unclear whether the African Union is actively considering selection procedures at this time, a thorny issue that may not easily be resolved. The resolutions of the L69 and CARICOM state in this regard: "Two permanent seats and two non-permanet seats for African States with the African Group being responsible for the nomination of Africa's representatives."
For a resolution on permanent seats with veto rights to pass, it will need 129 out of 193 UN Member States, two-thirds of the membership. Developing countries, when united, could narrowly meet such a majority. However, a number of developing countries are members or supporters of the Uniting for Consensus Group which is against new permanent seats and the necessary majority may therefore be elusive unless some developed countries would join in. Moreover, some Member States believe that decision 62/557 - which has guided the negotiations on Security Council reform - doesn't permit votes. Others believe that more than two-thirds of the membership will have to endorse a resolution to meet 62/557's stipulation of "widest possible political acceptance."
Apparently, allegations are rapidly spreading that some current permanent members have started demarches to thwart the likelihood of such resolutions being tabled and succeeding. The Center has not received much information in this regard. Such allegations could actually fan cohesion among countries from the South.
That the next President of the General Assembly will be from Antigua and Barbuda, a member of CARICOM, is likely to raise questions about his role in the 68th session, according to some sources.
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